Severe drought: western Mediterranean faces low river flows and crop yields earlier than ever

Between May 2022 and April 2023, temperatures in northern Morocco, Algeria, southern Spain, southern France and northern Italy were up to 2.5°C - sometimes 4°C – higher than average. Long-lasting and intense heatwaves contributed to these records. The conditions in late spring 2023 were worse than those of 2022, when a severe-to-extreme drought developed over Europe affecting water resources, agriculture and energy production. In addition, the European Commission JRC’s indicators point to widespread low river flows caused by the lack of rainfall. Spain is experiencing water shortages, particularly in Andalusia where water reservoirs are at about 25% of their capacity. Most of the western Mediterranean is now under warning and alert conditions (the two most severe levels) according to the combined drought indicator, which integrates data on rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation stress anomalies to map drought hazards. Identifying the drought level in this way plays an important role in helping to manage and monitor water resources in both the short and long term. The lack of water has significantly affected vegetation and crops in the middle of the growing season, leading to delayed sowing and low yield forecasts. Severe vegetation stress (for example failed crops and smaller fruits) was recorded across the Iberian Peninsula (except for northern Portugal), northern Africa, and central-southern France. Yield forecasts in the Maghreb have worsened further and are well below average levels. Crops are likely not to flower in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. In the Iberian Peninsula, drought conditions intensified and yield forecasts are well below 2022 values, with areas sown with summer crops substantially reduced. According to sources cited in the report, cereal production and livestock are the most affected sectors in Portugal.